Publications on modelling the Covid-19 epidemic
For the modelling of the impact of a Covid-19 Exposure Notification System (formerly: Digital Contact Tracing System) as well as the interplay with other containment measures, the ContacTUM consortium used epidmological models. To this end, the modelling experts of ContacTUM worked their way through the latest publications, incorporated the findings into their models and compared the outcome with the observed course of the pandemic.
Below we compiled the important publications that model the effect of contract tracing as well as other containment measures (as of June 2020).
M.J. Keeling: The Efficacy of Contact Tracing for the Containment of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)
medRxiv, 17 February 2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.02.14.20023036
M. Kretzschmar: Isolation and contact tracing can tip the scale to containment of COVID-19 in populations with social distancing
medRxiv, 16 April 2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.10.20033738
R. Hinch et al.: Effective Configurations of a Digital Contact Tracing App: A report to NHSX
Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford; 16 April 2020
A.J. Kucharski et al.: Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings: a mathematical modelling study
Centre for mathematical modeling of infectious diseases (CMMID), London School of Hygiene and Tropical medicine; 23 April 2020
L. Ferretti et al.: Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing
Science, 8 May 2020
DOI: 10.1126/science.abb6936
M. Kretzschmar: Time is of the essence: impact of delays on effectiveness of contact tracing for COVID-19
medRxiv, 15 May 2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.05.09.20096289
N. Ferguson: Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand
Imperial College,16 March 2020
DOI: 10.25561/77482
S.M. Kissler et al.: Social distancing strategies for curbing the COVID-19 epidemic
medRxiv, 15 May 2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.22.20041079
Giordano, G., Blanchini, F., Bruno, R. et al.: Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and implementation of population-wide interventions in Italy
Nat Med (2020), 22 April 2020
DOI: 10.1038/s41591-020-0883-7
J. Dehning et al.: Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions
Science, 15 May 2020
DOI: 10.1126/science.abb9789
P. Block et al.: Social network-based distancing strategies to flatten the COVID-19 curve in a post-lockdown world
Nature Human Behaviour, 4 June 2020
DOI: 10.1038/s41562-020-0898-6
